Ben Gellman-Chomsky

Mock PR: Brewers Middle Relief

To work out my media relations skills, I like to cook up fake press releases. It’s a good writing exercise, and it’s a lot of fun. This one is specially dedicated to Jared Weymier.

MORE AUDIO THAN EVER

Well, actually, I’ve just added an interview from the 2011 season that I did with the excellent Corey Ragsdale, infield coach for the Hickory Crawdads.  You can listen to it on the audio page.

That’s the page you access by clicking the “AUDIO” button on the left, for what it’s worth.  Or you can just click here.  I’m flexible like that.

2011 World Series Predictions

Well…this was unexpected.  Look back to the beginning of the season, and you’d be hard-pressed to find somebody who predicted a St. Louis Cardinals-Texas Rangers World Series matchup.

The Cardinals were down Adam Wainwright, one of their two aces, and didn’t have infield stability or health.  They had the weight of Albert Pujols’ impending free agency hanging over their heads.  They were counting on Lance Berkman to man the outfield, something he hadn’t viably done in several seasons.

The Rangers were missing Cliff Lee, the ace who had helped them into the playoffs and the World Series the year before.  They were counting on Adrian Beltre to live up to his pricey free-agent contract.  They needed continued health from slugging stars Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz.

These were not teams widely projected for World Series berths.  The Red Sox, with a vaunted offense, and the Phillies, with an equally impressive starting rotation, were both more popular candidates.  But we now stand less than 24 hours from the World Series, and it’s the Rangers and Cardinals who’ll duke it out in the Fall Classic.

My own, highly inaccurate predictions are already a matter of internet record, but I’m going to take a stab at it again with only a maximum of seven games left.  Here’s what I think will go down in the World Series:

BATTING
The Cardinals have a monster middle of the order, with the switch-hitting Berkman, sweet-swinging Matt Holliday and hot-as-blazes David Freese to complement Albert Pujols, who is quite possibly the best right-handed hitter since Aaron or Mays.  What’s around that middle of the order is less appetizing.  Rafael Furcal offers speed and some good contact skills, but he’s not somebody you count on in a big spot.  Yadier Molina has regressed some at the plate as well.  Guys like Nick Punto and Jon Jay are too inconsistent to provide Tony La Russa with perpetual production.  And if Berkman slides to the DH spot in Texas, the Cards might not have the big bat off the bench to fill his spot.

The Rangers are stocked with big-time bats.  Hamilton and Cruz are major mashers, Beltre and Mike Napoli have lots of power too, and even Ian Kinsler, David Murphy and Mitch Moreland can pop their fair share out of the ballpark. Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon lack the same power, but have decent contact strokes and terrific speed.  This lineup is deep and talented, and that gives the Rangers the edge here in my book.  ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

STARTING PITCHING
The Cardinals have lots of talent and lots of questions surrounding their starting rotation.  Chris Carpenter has been the definition of an ace in this postseason, but his elbow issues may keep him from being fully effective in the World Series.  Lefty Jaime Garcia has gotten knocked around a bit in the playoffs, and Edwin Jackson has been inconsistent too.   Kyle Lohse is always a little too prone to giving up homers.  If Carpenter, Jackson and Garcia can be at their best, the Cardinals will look good.  But the starters only got into the sixth inning once in the NLCS against the Brewers.

The Rangers have some rotation questions as well, but surely not as many.  C.J. Wilson is a solid starter who has struggled in the postseason this year, and Colby Lewis has the strong strikeout ability to battle dangerous hitters like the Cardinals sluggers (though his home run stats are cause for concern).  Derek Holland and Matt Harrison are both terrific young talents who can go deep into games, though Harrison’s strikeout numbers leave a lot to be desired.  The overall consistency and depth in the Texas rotation is what tips the scales towards them.  ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

RELIEF PITCHING
St. Louis has gotten some solid performances out of the pen this year.  Marc Rzepczynski has proven effective as a lefty specialist, Lance Lynn can bring the heat, and Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan are solid late-inning options.  Fernando Salas has had an excellent breakout season as the closer, although his 11 decisions and 80% save conversion rate are not confidence-inspiring.

Texas made crucial trade-deadline moves to shore up their bullpen, and Mike Adams and Koji Uehara have delivered in spades. Darren Oliver and Darren O’Day both provide good situational outings as well.  Ultimately, Texas’s bullpen efforts hinge on closer Neftali Feliz, who has been inconsistent this season, but still has overwhelming raw stuff.  While Texas has improved its bullpen, I still like St. Louis to close down games after their terrific bullpen efforts in the NLCS.  ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

DEFENSE
The Cardinals have some questions on defense, and they start with Rafael Furcal at shortstop.  He’s extremely athletic, but very erratic, and will throw the ball away or muff the play altogether from time to time.  Berkman has performed well in the outfield this year, but nobody’s mistaking him for Brett Gardner.  Molina is still among the best behind the plate, though, and Pujols is a fantastic defensive first baseman.

Texas also has questions at shortstop, where Andrus has tremendous ability but, like Furcal, tends to make mistakes.  Mike Napoli is just OK as a defensive catcher, which may come into play when St. Louis hosts and the DH vanishes.  Borbon, Hamilton and Cruz are a speedy triumvirate, but Hamilton and Cruz can make some iffy decisions.  Beltre is an all-world third baseman, and Kinsler has terrific range at second base.  ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

FINAL VERDICT
St. Louis has a great team, and their run this year has been a terrific story.  Still, the Rangers seem too deep to fall to this team.  Rangers in 6 games.

Still, I’ve been wrong before…

Theo Epstein’s Boston Legacy

It has been a disappointing couple of months for Red Sox fans.  The epic collapse of the team in September was only a precursor for a tumultuous beginning to the offseason, starting with Terry Francona’s departure from Boston.  Though most accounts have it that Tito lost control of the clubhouse (and the Boston Globe now reports that he was having personal problems as well), it’s a shame to see the best manager in Red Sox history go out in such fashion.

Now it is being reported that general manager Theo Epstein is headed out the door for an opportunity to take over for the Chicago Cubs organization.  As a fan of the Red Sox, I have very mixed feelings about the prospect of Theo’s departure.  On the one hand, this is a man who orchestrated the 2004 and 2007 championship squads for Boston, dealing for Curt Schilling along the way.  Adrian Beltre was a savvy one-year signing, and Adrian Gonzalez has been terrific since coming over via trade.  The trade for Jarrod Saltalamacchia has panned out fairly well to this point, and he shows signs of becoming a solid asset for the Sox in the future.  The Red Sox have had a terrific run of success throughout Theo’s reign, but there are certain aspects of his track record that are spottier.

Epstein flipped Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett, a move that helped win the 2007 World Series, but sacrificed some long-term success for the Sox (despite Hanley’s mediocre 2011).  The Sox have failed to find consistency at shortstop since 2004, bouncing from Orlando Cabrera to Edgar Renteria to Julio Lugo (GAHHHHHHH) to Marco Scutaro, who has been at least passable.  Slick-fielding Jose Iglesias has shown signs of competency, but is passable at best with his bat.  The Sox have regressed massively in pitching, running through starters at alarming rates.  Experiments and reclamation projects with Andrew Miller, Paul Byrd, Wade Miller, and Matt Clement have largely been busts, while Daisuke Matsuzaka raised pulses (and hackles) with his inconsistent performance.  John Lackey has been a colossal disappointment at best, and an epic failure by most accounts.

The minor league talent, in particular, has dried up somewhat under Theo; while Will Middlebrooks is an intriguing prospect at third base, the Sox have failed to consistently develop solid talent in the minors.  The most pressing need now is pitching, where the lack of upper-level talent means that Boston frequently must turn to the free agent market, prompting signings like Lackey and Clement where internal candidates could go.  The Red Sox must look enviously at the Tampa Bay Rays, who have developed a number of outstanding pitchers internally for a fraction of the cost the Sox pay in free agency.  Pitchers like Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Matt Moore would nicely replace the floundering Lackey or Tim Wakefield while costing significantly less.

The speculation is that Ben Cherington, Epstein’s assistant GM, is next in line for the job if Theo departs.  Cherington has an outstanding reputation in player development, and has all the right assets to do a fine job if given the opportunity.  While some outside candidates (like MLB’s Kim Ng, who has too long been overlooked for GM jobs) would do well, the risk of alienating the internal talent like Cherington may prove too great for the Sox to ignore.  Ironically, the Red Sox have done better keeping and developing their core front office staff than they have their minor league prospects.

Theo Epstein did tremendous things for the Boston Red Sox, and brought great joy to a fan base long accustomed to losing and bitter disappointment.  If he leaves in the next few days, we should wish him well and thank him for the wonderful memories.  But his departure would not cripple the Red Sox, and might open the door for exciting and innovative new moves.